Sunday, November 15, 2009

Who Says There is No Opposition to Global Warming?



Back in 2003 Dr. Michael Mann, climatologist, used geological factors (i.e. tree rings) to make the argument to Congress that the decade of the 1990s was the hottest decade in a millenium and that 1998 as the hottest year in a millenium. Public opinion and support grew rampant from his findings. From 2003-2005 Dr. McIntyre and McKitrick published articles that countered the validity of Mann's original hypothesis. To resolve this issue Joe Barton, chairman of the US House of Representatives Energy and Commerce Committee and Ed Whitfield, the chairman of the subcommitte on Oversight and Investigation, requested that Dr. Wegman(Ph.D in mathematical statistics and fellow of the American Statistical Association and Senior Member of the IEEE) issue a report on the statistical validity of the journal(s) published by Michael Mann and the counter-argument(s) posed in the articles of McIntyre and McKitrick.

The Wegman comittee, which included David W. Scott (Rice University) and Yasmin H. Said (The Johns Hopkins University), concluded that Mann's argument was both "obscure and incomplete," while the counter-argument of McIntyre and McKitrick to be both "valid and compelling." The congressional paper concluded: "Our comittee believes that the assessment that the decade of the 1990s was the hottest decade in the millenium and that 1998 was the hottest year in a millenium cannot be supported by Mann's paper." Wegman noted that the Mann report made statistical mistakes that would be common to those that were not fine-tuned in statistical methodology. They found that the cryptic nature used within the Mann report leaves outsiders only guessing at the procedures in use. Furthermore, the Wegman committee held questions as to the validity of using tree rings as a way to interpret temperature signals due to the variability that may arise.

This argument does not dismiss man-made global warming as a whole. However, the ability of lawmakers to direct public policy off unsound evidence should be enough to send shivers down your spine.

HERE IS THE REPORT BUREAUCRATS DO NOT WANT YOU TO SEE:



-MFE

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